How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napierone has been making money doing so for some years now, but has had little luck until recently. He’s spent months and probably even years going over his bets, but comes up short. Here’s how he explained it to me:
“I set out to find ways to turn the betting odds into a positive side. Once I did, I realized that the typical punter was punting for the wrong reasons. He takes the view that if something is red, it will go black, but he is actually betting against the bank. The focus of his attention is on the fact that the bookies will in the end always win, and indeed, they do. For this reason, he cannot win money at soccer. Because the bookies always win, the bookies will always edge the odds in their favour.
“So for me, what I have tried to do is to build up a system where I can take the odds to the shop and say, ‘Here, take these wholes for a while, and we’ll turn them in to cash'”
And so he has, and many others like him. The key is that they know the reasons they bet on soccer, rather than some mystical ones. They know the statistical odds, they know the factors that affect the outcome of a game. In short, they know their bingo. In fact, they know a lot more than the Euromillions caller. The reason they can take the odds is because they know the factors which affect the odds, and they know more than the bookies.
The people behind the methods can guarantee that, over time, the punters will show the same level of profits as the bookies. In fact, some have done this already. The reason you cannot guarantee the profits is that the bookies have the edge every single time. The bookies cannot be beaten over the long term, it is the you who are at a monetary disadvantage.
The solution is to adopt the methods of the bookies. Rather than trying to beat the bookies, make your profits from them.
The first thing you need to do to win is to join the bookies’ games, and bet on the same events that the bookies are. The reason you cannot do this yet is that the bookies listed some prices higher than others, and some have much more generous offers than others.
In those games the bookies offer you much better odds than you can on the independent markets. Some of the best opportunities come when the bookies have a history of some pretty big wins. Such opportunities don’t come often, however, and definitely cannot be predicted.
In the Afapoker game, the biggest advantage the house has is that it is the bookie, and that it is the only game with such a big advantage to the books. The chances of somebody else winning the Euromillions jackpot are tiny, and in any other game the chances are, you are far better off just playing the UK game. The bookies do this knowing that over time, most people will give it all to the bookie. Playing the Euro millions gives you a slightly better chance than doing the lotto at the time of purchase, but the chances are still small. The chances on the Euro millions game, compared to the British National Lottery game, are almost identical and you have to play the same games to win the same prizes.
In the USA lotto, Powerball, the majority of these games offer big money prizes and the odds are not in anybody’s favour. None of these games can be predicted. If you had a time machine, you could go back to the moment of the drawing and change your future. But still you would have a 50% chance of winning. In the USA the state lotto games there is the best chance for a win and even in the miss return period, the prizes are not so big. Maybe somebody managed to find the formula?
In the Euro millions game, it is the onus of the player to guess the correct five number combination. The total prize fund reward can reach several million pounds. The odds in this game are very high, in order to qualify for the jackpot, you have to match all panels. You have to match them all, thereby winning the jackpot.
However you may ask, what if you don’t match any of the panels? In that case, you can either offline the game, or you can request for a quick game. The customer service of the Euro millions site is good and they are ready to assist you.