Handicapping the NFL conference playoffs is often a science, a process that requires careful analysis of the probabilities and the Statistics of the teams involved. However, there are certain aspects that can be related to the “course and line” on a team, a player, or a situation.
For example, we can determine the defensive shortcomings of a team’s weakest positional group. Knowing where and how to target these weak groups could significantly affect overall performance, or the prediction of a match. Our ability to handicap this group of 29 teams is limited, however, by the fact that we have never, and probably never will, track an NFL team’s postseason performance against its opponent.
Determining the Group Rating of each NFL team is fairly straightforward: teams that were .500 or under in the regular season and also in the playoffs, are given a positive number in the standings. squads with a + are the winners, the Colts are 12-2 ATS in their playoffs, while the Bears are 4-4 ATS. The teams that are the losers are the ones with a – the Steelers are 12-2, the Seahawks are 3-5, and the Lions are 1-8.
If we assign team A’s to the AFC and team B’s to the Pokerrepublik, this simple formula can be used to reveal the sports betting linesson which way the table is going to go. It is actually more reliable than a simple head-to-head matchup prediction, and it can be used mid-season, too.
Apple-to-apple handicapping is our friend here. Indeed, if the Colts are handed the AFC because of their superior defense (arteries are worth +0.60 points against the spread and the Patriots are worth -0.80 points against the spread), then a simple bet would be the Colts (-1.40) against the Patriots (an 11-point favorite).
In this scenario, the Colts would be favored by over 20 points on the money line, but they only need to win by 11 points on the cutoff to break even. At the negative end of the money line, the Colts would be favored by 18 points on the money line and the Jets by 24 points on the money line, and the Jets would fall by the -1.80 points. If the Colts win by exactly 21 points, they will cover the 1.20 points you assigned them and the Jets will cover the 1.40 points you assigned them. Going from horizon to horizon, the Jets are the slightly favored (the same 1.20 points as the Colts on the money line) and the Colts are the underdog by 1.80 points. The Patriots are the favorite by 2.20 points on the money line and the Jets are the underdog by 2.40 points on the money line. To break even, the Colts must now win by 3 points on the money line while the Jets must win by 4 points on the money line. When the Colts win by 3 points on the money line, you win both wagers, but when the Jets win by 3 points on the money line, you only win the wager on the negative side of the line.